Predictions for DGA and PGA awards

What’s your favorite mental health escape? Looking at this list my colleagues put together, I’m seeing that one person’s idea of mental health might be my version of mental hell. Disneyland? I would expect no other place from Todd Martens — that’s what makes him an authority on the place. To some, like Todd, it might be the “Happiest Place on Earth.” But I’m going to need to tip back a few Yub Nubs from Oga’s Cantina to boost my well-being if I’m wandering the grounds.

I’m Glenn Whipp, columnist for the Los Angeles Times and host of The Envelope’s Monday newsletter, sending along some peaceful, easy feelings. Sorry if you hate the f— Eagles, man. They were just on my mind, as you’ll see below. Let’s get to it.

Who will win at the directors and producers awards Saturday?

Two of the awards season’s most crucial precursors will arrive this weekend with the Directors and Producers Guild awards. With the DGA, 66 of the 74 winners have gone on to take the directing Oscar. The most recent departure came five years ago when Sam Mendes won the DGA honor for “1917,” while Bong Joon Ho prevailed at the Oscars with “Parasite.” Before that, Ben Affleck memorably won for “Argo” after Oscar voters snubbed him.

“The Brutalist” director Brady Corbet is the odds-on favorite to win at both ceremonies this year. Corbet brought his 3 ½-hour epic in for around $10 million, so voters may be inclined to give him bonus points for creativity. Plus, he worked on the movie for years without taking a salary. Who doesn’t love a passion project?

In interviews, Corbet has hammered home the importance of honoring the artist’s vision, even if it seems a little nuts, a message that will resonate with fellow filmmakers.

“I was told that this film was undistributable,” Corbet said accepting the Golden Globe last month. “I was told that no one would come out and see it. I was told the film wouldn’t work. No one was asking for a 3 ½-hour film about a midcentury designer on 70 millimeter. But it works. So please, just think about it.”

The Producers Guild honor is trickier to predict. The winner of the PGA’s top prize, the Darryl F. Zanuck Award, has matched the Oscar winner for best picture in 16 of the last 21 years after both the academy and the PGA expanded their best picture slates and adopted a preferential ballot to determine the victor. The last exception was, again, the year “Parasite” won best picture. The PGA, like the Directors Guild, gave its award to “1917.”

If “The Brutalist” prevails with both the PGA and DGA, it’s going to be the presumptive favorite to win the best picture Oscar. Several nominees, most notably “Conclave” and “A Complete Unknown,” are pinning their chances at winning by being the consensus choice, the movie most voters like well enough to rank high on their ballots. For that argument to feel solid at the Oscars, a win with the PGA is almost a must. And as the membership of the Producers Guild skews toward older white folks — think an Eagles concert at the Sphere — these movies have a shot.

The DGA and PGA awards will also give Sean Baker and “Anora” a chance at reclaiming the front-runner status that many pundits had assigned it early in the season. “Wicked” might have a better outlook as perhaps producers will want to salute its commercial success and the degree of difficulty inherent in taking the property from the stage to screen. And if “Wicked” wins, it might be able to pair that trophy with an ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards in a couple of weeks.

So, yes, it’s a complicated case, friends, a lot of ins, a lot of outs, a lot of what-have-yous. The safe pick: “The Brutalist.” The boring pick: “Conclave.” The fun pick: “Wicked.” The pick that will drive everyone crazy (which makes it a fun pick too): “Emilia Pérez.” We shall see.

Ariana Grande, left, and Cynthia Erivo in “Wicked,” a contender at the PGA Awards.

(Giles Keyte / Universal Pictures)

Wrapping up this year’s Sundance

Not a ton of FOMO, as it seems like this year’s festival underwhelmed. Nevertheless, our team found some favorites, and I’m down with any movie that hands the mic to Carey Mulligan.

The critically panned “Atropia,” directed by Hailey Gates, won the U.S. dramatic competition’s grand jury prize for its satiric take on the intersection of war and performance, while Brittany Shyne’s “Seeds,” an empathetic exploration of Black generational farmers in the South, was awarded the U.S. documentary competition’s top honor.

Time will tell whether we’ll be talking about some of these films this time next year.

You can count on me, however, to be back in your inbox on Friday. Hope you have a good week.

Carey Mulligan, star of Sundance favorite “The Ballad of Wallis Island.”

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)