California Due for Downturn in ‘91--Study

California, the sixth-largest economy in the world with a yearly product of $700 billion, is due for a fairly mild downturn next year, a forecast said Friday.

Security Pacific Corp. said the state, which is expected to post a 1.3% increase in its economy this year, will see a 0.2% gain for 1991, with the biggest problems coming early next year.

“We’re expecting just a two-quarter downturn that should start to rebound by the second half of next year,” said Adrian Sanchez, an economist with the bank holding company. “The slowdown in the first six months will be similar to that in the national economy, but not as deep.”

Sanchez said the state’s economy will be pulled down by manufacturing employment, in aerospace, electronics and housing-related manufacturing; a slower pace in consumer spending, brought on in part by worries over the Iraqi crisis and by a much-slowed real estate market.