FIRST LOOK AT SUPER BOWL XXXI

Storyline: The Packers have tradition and New England has Coach Bill Parcells, who already has won two Super Bowl titles. Green Bay won the first two Super Bowls played with Vince Lombardi as coach, and the Patriots lost to Chicago in Super Bowl XX in New Orleans. The Packers were the preseason pick of many to make it this far after losing to Dallas in last year’s NFC championship game. The Patriots have been a surprise because of the conflict between Parcells and team owner Bob Kraft. Most NFL observers have Parcells going to the New York Jets as soon as the Patriots have played their last game, and while that might be a distraction for some teams, it appears to be motivating New England. The two teams have played five times, with New England holding a 3-2 edge, including a 17-16 victory in their last meeting in 1994.

Why Green Bay will win: This will be the culmination of Coach Mike Holmgren’s five-year rebuilding plan, a step-by-step return to the glory days with Reggie White fulfilling his destiny after signing a $17.2-million contract to play with the Packers and Brett Favre validating his place in history among the game’s greatest quarterbacks. The Packers have the offense, now that they have discovered a running game, to control the ball, if necessary, or win a shootout with the Patriots should Drew Bledsoe & Co. prove effective on the attack. New England’s secondary will have trouble covering the Packer tight ends, and Andre Rison’s big-play capability makes it imperative for the Patriots to get pressure on Favre, lest he have the time to throw deep.

Why New England will win: The Patriots came on strong at season’s end after Parcells took the wraps off Bledsoe and allowed him to light up the scoreboard. The Packers led the league in scoring defense, so the Patriots’ best opportunity to win probably rests on getting an early lead, which could rattle an excitable Favre. Carolina scored 10 points Sunday because of Favre’s eagerness to impress, but lacked the wherewithal to finish off the Packers. Parcells has the experience to play field-position football and hold a lead, if his team can get one. Kansas City beat the Packers this season by running the ball, which bodes well for the success of New England’s Curtis Martin.

And who will win? The Packers, begging the question: Where will they have that ticker-tape parade in Green Bay, and more important, where will they get the ticker tape?

The line: Green Bay by 13 1/2.