Officials Warn of Slides, Floods if More Rainfall Drenches Area

With fire-scorched hillsides soaked by yet another winter storm, county officials said Wednesday that they are concerned that one more deluge could touch off serious flooding and landslides.

Areas of La Conchita, Ventura and Fillmore have reached maximum saturation levels, which means that any significant amounts of new rainfall could compromise the strength of nearby hills, officials said.

“The risk is much higher,” said Dolores Taylor, the county’s senior hydrologist. “Our rainy season lasts until the end of March . . . so we have really got at least two more months to be wary of any large-looking Pacific storm.”

The cold front that delivered scattered showers and strong winds to Ventura County on Wednesday is expected to taper off today, forecasters said. It is not expected to pack a punch forceful enough to create any flooding problems.

“The rain has been relatively gentle,” said Bruce Rockwell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “We have been very fortunate so far.”

The steady rain in recent weeks has turned local hillsides green with new grass. But officials say that after 10 to 14 inches saturates those emerald hills, the soil becomes weakened and the risk of landslides increases substantially.

So far this season, more than 23 inches of rain has fallen in the mountainous area west of Fillmore, where the Grand fire burned 10,925 acres last spring.

The beach community of La Conchita has received about 12 inches of rain. That is less than the 20 inches recorded prior to the massive landslide that struck the hamlet in the spring of 1995, but enough that geologists have increased the rate of soil inspections.

Until recently, geologists tested the soil once every three months. Now, they are checking the ground monthly and could step up those tests if more rain falls, officials said.

Meanwhile, the county Sheriff’s Department is closely monitoring La Conchita and the canyon areas near Fillmore.

“We have been watching it real carefully,” said Dale Carnathan, an administrator with the sheriff’s Office of Emergency Services. “We have been very active in putting personnel out there to keep an eye on it.”

In Ventura, more than 13 inches of rain has been recorded in the area where an October fire burned nearly 400 acres near downtown. City officials reseeded the area in December and are hopeful that the new grass will hold.

“We have had a lot of rain this winter,” Public Works Director Ron Calkins said. “The good part about it is that the intensities haven’t been too bad.”

Each rainstorm to move across the region lately has delivered only moderate to occasionally heavy showers--not enough to trigger floods, officials said.

But with two months left in the rainy season and hills already at the saturation point, the future forecast remains an area of heightened concern.

“It would help us if we could get a drying-out period,” Taylor said.

A break in the storm cycle would give the ground time to dry out, giving some protection against potential flooding. That does not guarantee, however, that landslides will not occur in the event of a severe storm.

There was almost a month of dry weather before a storm triggered the landslide at La Conchita, Taylor said. Hydrologists suspect that the heavy water continued to settle in the soil during that month.

The next storm on the horizon is expected to hit Monday or Tuesday. In the meantime, forecasters predict scattered showers this morning, clearing to partly cloudy skies for the rest of the week.

The unseasonably cold daytime temperatures--which dipped to 46 to 48 degrees along the coast Wednesday--are expected to warm slightly today, with highs in the mid-50s.

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County Rainfall

Here are rainfall figures from the Ventura County Flood Control Department for the 24-hour period ending at 6 p.m. Wednesday. Oct. 1 is the beginning of the official rain year.

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Rainfall Rainfall Normal rainfall Location last 24 hours since Oct. 1 to date Camarillo 0.35 9.72 5.76 Casitas Dam 0.47 18.77 9.96 Casitas Rec. Center 0.87 19.02 9.75 Fillmore 0.67 14.89 8.07 Matilija Dam 1.18 21.95 10.66 Moorpark 0.67 10.80 6.12 Ojai 0.90 15.65 8.57 Upper Ojai 1.30 19.49 9.14 Oxnard 0.35 19.79 5.90 Piru 0.51 11.37 7.01 Port Hueneme 0.39 8.73 5.85 Santa Paula 1.02 14.26 7.35 Simi Valley 0.51 10.51 5.84 Thousand Oaks 0.63 10.35 6.25 Ventura Govt. Center 0.16 11.31 6.54

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