Undecided S. Korea Voters Hold Election in Hands

SEOUL — If undecided voters wake up this morning angry about their imploding economy and determined to “throw the bums out,” the next president of South Korea will be fiery former dissident Kim Dae Jung.

But if they feel afraid, nostalgic or worried about financial stability, the winner will almost certainly be former Supreme Court Justice Lee Hoi Chang.

Lee is the favored candidate of many older and upper-income voters, big business and the financial markets. Kim’s support is strongest among those younger than 40, the working class, unions and the liberal intelligentsia. A victory by Kim would be the historic first ouster of the ruling party since 1961 and could spell the end of the government-business partnership known as Korea Inc.

Whoever wins will have the unenviable job of enforcing the painful economic reforms South Korea has promised the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, that it will carry out as conditions for a $60-billion global bailout package that snatched the world’s 11th-largest economy from the jaws of default two weeks ago.

Pollsters say the race is too close to call. Early exit polls showed Lee with 40% and Kim with 39.2%, and some pollsters predicted that the margin of victory could be as narrow as 250,000 votes out of an electorate of 32.3 million.

“This one is so close we won’t know till we open the ballot boxes,” the Chosun Ilbo declared.

Turnout was extremely heavy this morning. A heavy turnout is seen as favoring Lee.

The candidates spent Wednesday courting street vendors and television cameras in search of last-minute converts among the large percentage of voters--15% or more--who tell pollsters they are undecided.

Lee, urged by aides to smile more to soften his dour and severe image, nipped into a street stall for a bowl of the blood-and-intestine soup that South Koreans say is a hangover remedy and energy booster.

“We are at the crossroads of a life-or-death decision,” Lee said, promising a clean break with the failed policies of lame-duck President Kim Young Sam and an end to the corruption that has plagued South Korean politics and helped cripple this former economic tiger.

In recent days, Lee has focused on accusing Kim Dae Jung of ravaging foreign investor confidence by suggesting that he would renegotiate the IMF agreement--a stance the opposition candidate has since abandoned.

A pollster for Kim said last week that voters supported Kim’s call for trying to soften some of the more onerous terms of the agreement in order to ward off feared massive unemployment. But public opinion shifted when South Korea’s currency began to plummet, which Lee blamed on Kim’s statement. By election day, the renegotiation flap had become a negative for Kim.

“If Kim Dae Jung loses, the renegotiation issue will be a major factor in his loss,” said Choi Jang Jip, political science professor at Korea University.

Lee is running as the candidate of stability, Kim the candidate of change. Analysts see little difference between their economic policies and say the winner’s leeway to tinker will be severely restricted by the IMF.

“I will vote for Lee Hoi Chang because I don’t want the situation to get worse, because I’m afraid there will be confusion and turmoil if there is a complete change of power,” said Ra Sun Ok, who has $20,000 in one of 14 banks that have been temporarily shut down. The government has promised that depositors will get at least part of their money back soon.

The 62-year-old Lee, who served briefly as prime minister but quit because of conflicts with President Kim, was nominated by the president’s party in August.

Lee was the overwhelming favorite until revelations that both his sons had won exemption from military service for being underweight. The father insists that his sons did nothing illegal, but the issue dogged him through election eve.

“All of the young men of Korea support Lee Hoi Chang,” proclaimed lawmaker Roh Mu Hyon, a speaker at a Kim Dae Jung rally.

“That’s a lie,” shouted someone in the crowd.

“It’s true,” insisted Roh. “Because if they support Lee Hoi Chang, they will not have to go into the army.”

The audience roared with laughter.

This fall, Lee insisted that the disgraced President Kim quit the party, and then changed the organization’s name to the Grand National Party in a bid to distance himself from the tainted president.

Kim, naturally, has tried to portray Lee as the latest heir to a ruling party whose big-money politics and collusive ties to business have rotted South Korea, creating the current crisis.

“If the ruling party did a poor job and remains in power, then this is a backward country,” Kim bellowed hoarsely at a rally Wednesday in a trendy shopping district. “Democracy means a change of power.”

In his fourth run for the presidency, Kim, who is 73 but whose opponents accuse him of often shaving his age to 71, is billing himself as a “prepared leader.”

“For 40 years, I have prepared,” he told supporters.

Kim promises to be an “economic president” who will protect the workers against layoffs while deregulating the economy. That means ending the privileges and protections that favored businesses here have long enjoyed.

“The business sector is overwhelmingly negative toward Mr. Kim,” said Han Sung Joo, a former foreign minister who is supporting Lee. “His claim to be an ‘economic president’ is persuasive only to people who are not dealing in stocks.”

“The chaebol [conglomerates] are supporting Lee,” agreed Choi, the professor. South Korea’s stock and currency markets mellowed this week, making for a calmer election-day mood. The stock market rose 14.23 points, or 3.52%, to close Wednesday at 418.51, its highest since Dec. 6. But the ailing won slumped 4%, trading at 1,493 to the dollar.

Markets are closed today for the election. But portents of hard times were everywhere as voters headed for the polls.

The morning papers brought the news that South Korea’s leading conglomerate, the mighty Samsung Group, will lay off 150 of its 1,300 managers, a blow to the country’s lifetime employment system. Analysts say IMF demands to slash corporate debt will double unemployment to 5% or higher. Coping with that will be a major headache for whoever takes office as president Feb. 25.

Seven candidates are contending for the job, including Rhee In Je, who is running a distant third to Kim and Lee in the polls. Four minor-party candidates, including labor leader Kwon Yong Kil, round out the field. The fairness of the media and the role of television have been hot issues during the campaign.

Earlier this week, dissident reporters at Joong Ang Ilbo, which is one of the nation’s largest newspapers and is owned by Samsung, leaked internal documents appearing to show that senior newspaper executives were giving campaign advice to Lee. Saying the incident compromised media integrity, 103 journalists from 49 organizations drafted a leaflet of apology to the South Korean people, which was handed out on the street Wednesday night.

The three major candidates each spent an estimated $6.7 million on TV, radio and newspaper advertising, including broadcasting speeches by supporters.

The daughter of former strongman Park Chung Hee, for example, gave a televised speech praising Lee. But it’s a close race; her brother is supporting Kim.