Nine things the numbers tell us about the Angels-Red Sox division series
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1. The Red Sox can play the waiting game
The Red Sox offense is one of the most patient in baseball. The team finished the season ranked second in the league in the following categories: pitches per plate appearance (3.95), first pitches taken (76%) and chase percentage (they chased only 19% of pitches out of the strike zone -- the major league average is 23%). Red Sox hitters Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and J.D. Drew saw a combined 190 pitches out of the strike zone from Angels pitchers and chased only 15 (8%).
2. The Angels will come out swinging
*--* FIRST PITCHES TAKEN 76%
CHASE PERCENTAGE 19%
MAJOR LEAGUE AVG. 23% *--*
The Angels are more on the aggressive side, chasing slightly above the league average rate, but they ranked fifth in the majors with a .174 batting average on pitches out of the strike zone. Three Angels ranked in the top 15 when it came to “bad-ball hitting” -- Casey Kotchman, Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero all batted over .230 on pitches out of the strike zone.
3. With Beckett, it’s two strikes and you’re out
Game 1 starter Josh Beckett is 1-0 with a 1.39 earned-run average in two starts against the Angels. The right-hander has held the Angels to three hits in 26 at-bats on two-strike counts, a .115 batting average.
4. Figgins and Guerrero are early risers
Two key hitters in the Angels lineup, Guerrero and Figgins, handled Red Sox pitching extremely well in the early innings of games but were not productive in the late innings against the Red Sox:
*--* BATTER FIRST FIVE INNINGS AFTER FIFTH INNING Vladimir Guerrero 526 (10 for 19) 188 (3 for 16) Chone Figgins 444 (8 for 18) 111 (1 for 9) *--*
5. For Red Sox pitchers, it’s one up, one down
Red Sox pitchers were second in the league with a .234 batting average against the first batter of an inning. The Angels ranked 15th, with a .267 batting average against.
6. Both staffs are first-strike forces
The Angels and Red Sox ranked seventh and eighth in the league, respectively, in first-pitch strike percentage during the regular season. Angels pitchers threw 62% of their first pitches for strikes in September, which was second only to the Minnesota Twins. The major league average is 58%.
7. Okajima is an agent of change
Not only did opponents hit a measly .172 against Hideki Okajima’s changeup, but he threw it for a strike 77% of the time (league average is 62%). Angels batters were one for 10 against his change, and two for 18 overall.
*--* OKAJIMA’S CHANGEUP 77% FOR STRIKES
MAJOR LEAGUE AVG. 62% *--*
8. Low on gas, Speier will try to slide by
Angels reliever Justin Speier has performed admirably since taking over the setup role this summer. Speier’s fastball averages 89 mph, which makes it the slowest on the Angels staff. But opposing batters are only nine for 51 (.176) against it. Doesn’t sound like a lot of at-bats? True. Speier uses his sub-90s-mph heater for only 39% of his total pitches, less frequently than his slider (45%).
9. Papelbon is all smoke, no mirrors
Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon comes in and brings the heat. Opponents batted .110 (17 for 154) against his fastball; Angels batters were 0 for 11 against his fastball.
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Source: Inside Edge Scouting Services
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